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Travelers are weary -

Despite an original projection of a 9% increase in foreign travel to the US in 2025, the forecast has nearly halved as Trump's policies leave international visitors weary of the nation's political climate. 

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Loss estimated at US$64 billion -

The downfall of international travel to the US is projected to cause a US$64 billion loss for the travel industry. Tourism Economics has identified Trump's political rhetoric as the primary reason why travel plans are changing.

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Political rhetoric at the forefront -

While initial analyses pointed to policies on tariffs, especially relevant to Canadian tourists, the aspect of political rhetoric is playing a larger role than industry experts imagined. 

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Polarizing policies -

Analyses are pointing the fingers at “polarizing Trump Administration policies and rhetoric.”

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Risky vacation -

According to industry expert Adam Sacks, international travelers view the US as a risky vacation spot, which has led to this shift in the industry’s forecast.

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Chinese travelers -

Regional percentages are particularly telling. Chinese travelers to the US are down 11%, coinciding with Trump’s increasingly negative rhetoric about the country.

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Political talk -

While initial projections assumed tariffs would impact travel to the country, it seems the president’s political talk has been a greater source of travel changes.

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Regional trends -

Travelers coming from Africa, Asia, and Central America are, too, changing their plans, as drops between 6-9% have been recorded across these regions.

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Philippines -

According to a March 2025 Boston Globe report, a family coming from the Philippines made a last-minute change to their vacation plans to embark on a cruise from Florida. The group of 30 opted for a Canadian vacation instead.

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Personal safety -

The group decided that “given the volatility and hostility of this administration, we wouldn’t take a chance.” The family cites issues of “personal safety” as the primary consideration for their decision.

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Travel industry -

Although the numbers for Trump’s second term look more dramatic, the travel industry was also plagued by a drop during the President’s first term in office.

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Travel bans -

Not taking Covid-19 impacts into consideration, the industry lost out on a projected US$20 billion due to travel bans and political rhetoric that diverted travelers coming from Mexico, China, and the Middle East, in particular.

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Canada -

In response, travelers are looking to America’s northern neighbor for vacation plans. Canada is set to have a jump in its tourism numbers due to changed travel plans.

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Trudeau -

Governments, too, are issuing warnings to their citizens regarding travel to the US. Canada’s former prime minister, Justin Trudeau, has asked citizens not to vacation in the US.

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Canadian travelers -

Whether Trudeau’s plea made a difference is difficult to measure, but Canadian land travel to the US fell by 23% and air travel by 13% in February 2025 alone.

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Huge losses from Canada -

In fact, international travel from Canada is set to cause an over US$3 billion loss in tourism for the US in 2025 alone, amounting to a projected 15% drop.

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The US's largest group of tourists -

It is worth noting that Canadians have historically and continue to be one of the biggest groups of international visitors to the US. In 2024, 20.24 million Canadians visited the US.

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Germany -

In March 2025, the German government issued new travel advice to its citizens following what appears to be the arbitrary denial of three German nationals to the US who were also detained.

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ESTA program -

This is a complicated issue for Europeans, many of whose governments have strong political ties to the US, including access to the electronic system for travel authorization (ESTA) program.

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Visa waiver -

The ESTA program is a visa waiver that allows nationals of certain countries, the majority of which are European, to travel to the US.

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Entry still subject to evaluation -

The catch is that while the program allows for visa-free travel, there is no guarantee of entrance to the country. Visitors can still be denied upon entry, which is what happened to the German nationals in question.

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Permanent resident denied -

One of the German nationals denied entry is also a legal permanent resident of the United States, which is creating anxiety for many residents about the power of the government to revoke such status without due process.

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Fabian Schmidt -

Fabian Schmidt, the German national with US residency, was not only held in detention, but was also allegedly interrogated, stripped, and forced to take a cold shower by airport border officials.

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Jessica Brösche -

Jessica Brösche, one of the other German nationals recently denied entry to the US, attempted to enter the country via the Tijuana-Mexico crossing. She was denied entry and detained.

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Detained for weeks -

In an unbelievable turn of events, Brösche was kept at the Otay Mesa Detention facility for over six weeks, including nine days in solitary confinement.

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German government probe -

The German government notes that they are conducting investigations into all three cases, underlining their travel advice is a mere note, rather than any kind of official warning.

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Purchasing power -

It’s not just travel to the US that’s at stake. Some former visitors living abroad are even taking another step in boycotting American goods in their daily shopping. Pictured is a Canadian supermarket, which highlights which products are domestically produced in the context of US tariffs.

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Hospitality industry in US -

In the US, the hospitality industry is already registering a downward turn. Reports show that job losses in the industry have been on the up for the first two months of 2025.

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What's next -

Policy decisions, tariffs, economic projections, and fears of more job losses for average Americans are also souring domestic travel. Small businesses brace for impact as the nation waits to see what’s next.

Sources: (Boston Globe) (EuroNews) (Statista)

See also: Trump targets 43 countries in new US travel ban proposal

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