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Marked by natural disasters, political tensions, and wars, 2024 is shaping up to be a record-breaking year, but not in a good way. Scientists warn that we're on track to breach the critical 1.5°C (2.7°F) global warming threshold. This will be the first year that global average temperatures exceed this limit, a key benchmark for avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.
What are the implications of breaching this limit to the current climate crisis and is there anything we can do to turn the tide? Click through the gallery to find out.
The year 2024 is on track to become the hottest year on record. According to projections by the European climate service, global temperatures will surpass the 1.5°C limit, a critical threshold for climate change.
The 1.5°C threshold is a critical climate benchmark set by scientists. It refers to an increase in temperature compared to the pre-industrial era (1850-1900), a time before human activity started to significantly warm up the planet.
Experts confirm that human-caused climate change, exacerbated by natural factors like El Niño, is the primary driver of rising global temperatures.
With temperatures soaring through the first ten months of 2024, it's highly likely that this year will break the 1.5°C threshold.
The previous record of 1.48°C (2.6°F) was only set in 2023, highlighting the rapid pace of global warming.
This would also mark the first time a single calendar year has exceeded the 1.5°C warming threshold, according to data from Copernicus, the European Union's Earth observation program.
The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. Nearly 200 countries, including the United States and China, pledged to limit global warming to 1.5°C under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
World leaders agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, transition to clean energy, and strive for net-zero emissions by mid-century.
Developed countries are also expected to provide financial and technological support to developing countries to help them mitigate and adapt to climate change.
If we consistently exceed the 1.5°C warming limit, we're headed toward a catastrophic future. A recent UN report warns that, without greater action, we could reach 3.1°C (5.6°F) of warming, causing increasingly severe weather events.
The El Niño weather pattern contributed to increased warming in early 2024. In the first week of November, global average temperatures set new records for that time of year every day, according to Copernicus data.
El Niño is a climate pattern that occurs when surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. This warming releases excess heat into the atmosphere, influencing global weather patterns.
Although the last El Niño cycle ended around April 2024, heat trapped by greenhouse gases from human activities has kept temperatures stubbornly high.
A temporary drop in global temperatures could still occur in 2025, as scientists believe a La Niña event might bring a cooler phase. However, the exact impact remains uncertain.
La Niña is a cooling phase in the Pacific Ocean, often occurring every 3-5 years. It typically brings drier conditions, with occasional extreme cold spells—opposite to the effects of El Niño.
But concerns are still high, as greenhouse gases released in the atmosphere are still on the rise, and scientists warn it is likely only a matter of time before new records are set.
According to the UN, this limit was set because strong evidence suggests that weather events would become increasingly extreme as we approach 2°C (3.6°F), and some changes would be irreversible.
Reaching 2°C could mean that even the warmest days would be, on average, 4°C (7.2°F) warmer at mid-latitudes (regions outside the poles and tropics). This would impact areas such as some US states and countries like Germany and the United Kingdom.
Ocean levels would be 0.1m (4 in) higher than at 1.5°C, exposing up to 10 million more people to even more frequent flooding.
More than 99% of coral reefs would be lost, compared with 70-90% at 1.5°C. Not only are they home to a quarter of all marine life, but coral reefs also serve as a natural barrier against waves, storms, and floods, and act as natural carbon sinks.
While breaching the 1.5°C limit in a single year is alarming, it doesn't mean the Paris Agreement goal has been broken. The goal refers to average temperatures over a period of 20 years or so, to account for natural variability.
While specialists continue to advocate for meeting the ideal 1.5°C scenario, governments admitted when signing the Paris Agreement that the targets would not limit global warming to 1.5°C.
Current climate plans still sadly put the world on track for around 2.6°C (4.7°F) to 2.8°C (5°F) of warming by 2100, according to the UN.
All is not lost, specialists say. This could drop to 1.9°C (3.5°F) if all net zero pledges were achieved i.e. countries need to put in place more policies to achieve their goals.
To stay below 1.5°C of global warming, emissions need to be cut by roughly 50% by 2030.
At the 2023 COP28 climate conference, countries agreed for the first time to "contribute" to phasing out fossil fuels. While this is not a legally binding commitment, it represents a crucial step in addressing global warming.
COP29, happening in November 2024 under the theme "Investing in a Livable Planet for All," will put pressure on leaders to take concrete action. This includes implementing enforceable frameworks that hold countries accountable for their emissions targets.
Warnings and limits have been issued, but specialists and the planet demand action. "Stabilizing global temperatures by reaching net-zero emissions is the only way to stop adding to the costs of these disasters," says Ed Hawkins, professor of climate science at the University of Reading.
Sources: (BBC) (El País English) (WWF) (National Weather Service)
Scientists predict 2024 will breach 1.5°C global warming limit
This will be the first calendar year to exceed the threshold
LIFESTYLE Climate change
Marked by natural disasters, political tensions, and wars, 2024 is shaping up to be a record-breaking year, but not in a good way. Scientists warn that we're on track to breach the critical 1.5°C (2.7°F) global warming threshold. This will be the first year that global average temperatures exceed this limit, a key benchmark for avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.
What are the implications of breaching this limit to the current climate crisis and is there anything we can do to turn the tide? Click through the gallery to find out.