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What is the arc of instability? -

The war in Ukraine has created an "arc of instability" between Russia and the European Union (EU), according to Carnegie scholars.

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The "in-between" countries -

More specifically, the conflict has left a group of "in-between" European countries more vulnerable and insecure than ever before.

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The five countries under potential threat -

Set along this arc, a term coined by academics from Brussels-based Carnegie Europe and Carnegie's Russia Eurasia Center, are five countries—Armenia (pictured), Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia.

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From the Balkans to the Caucasus -

This arc curves from the Balkans to the Caucasus, and these in-between states are seen as increasingly at risk from external pressures applied by Moscow.

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The influence of Russia -

In its paper, 'Between Russia and the EU: Europe's Arc of Instability,' the think tank highlights Russia's efforts to maintain influence over these nations by exploiting their weaknesses and adjusting its narratives to win the loyalty of swing voters and deter Western influence.

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The European Union and NATO -

While all these in-between countries are outside of the EU and NATO, all are strengthening their ties with the bloc, with most being prospective members.

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Candidate states -

Georgia, for example, is one of these EU candidate states. This aerial view taken in Tbilisi on December 16, 2023, shows the Bridge of Peace illuminated with the EU flag to mark the country's application for EU accession.

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Ties with Russia -

But these five countries also maintain many connections with Russia, and are home to pro-Russian political forces and business interests.

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Reliant on Russian gas -

Furthermore, many still buy Russian gas (Moldova, however, is currently facing an energy crisis after Russian gas stopped passing through Ukraine at the end of 2024). 

Filter separators, center, at the Gazprom PJSC Slavyanskaya compressor station, the starting point of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, in Ust-Luga, Russia

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Armenia's place along the arc -

Armenia, meanwhile, remains a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and was until recently part the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (pictured with Russian President Vladimir Putin) effectively froze his country's membership in the CSTO in late 2024. Pashinyan is also reevaluating Armenia's role within the EAEU.

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US/EU support -

Since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, the EU and the United States have increased their political and economic support for these in-between countries (pictured is Belgrade).

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EU enlargement process -

This support saw the EU relaunch its enlargement process and green light candidate status to Moldova, Ukraine, and (more conditionally) Georgia.

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European Union Mission in Armenia -

In addition, Brussels launched the European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) to monitor its border, the first such mission in a CSTO member state.

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Testing times - These moves are taking place as the Kremlin's activist foreign policy is expanding Russian global influence and at a time when the United States and other Western countries are increasingly divided or consumed by domestic problems. The US is also increasingly at odds with its European partners over defense expenditure.

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EU ascendency not a given -

It would therefore "be complacent to assume that the European trajectory of these in-between countries is a given," warned the report. Pictured in 2023 are tens of thousands of Moldovans urging their country to obtain EU membership.

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Pro EU, pro Russian -

While public opinion in the in-between countries is growing more pro-European, there are still many sections of society in each that want to be on good terms with both Russia and the EU.

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Serbia and the EU -

This desire for equitability was underlined by the results of a poll undertaken in Serbia in 2022 by the International Republican Institute (IRI), where 51% of people wanted to be on good terms with both Russia and the EU (13% are pro-Western but want to maintain ties with Moscow, while 38% want Russia and the West to be given equal treatment). Pictured is Aleksandar Vučić, Serbia's president, with Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission.

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Hearts and minds -

But perhaps the real test is the public struggle to win over the hearts and minds of people in the in-between countries, suggest the report's authors.

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Mind over matter -

To that end, Moscow is placing less emphasis on its role as security patron and energy provider and more on an ideological message.

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An alternative solution -

That message is that Russia "provides an alternative pole to the West and in particular to the 'global hegemon' of the United States, which is portrayed as the puppet master of unwilling European countries."

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Why does geography matter? -

All of the countries in the arc of instability are relatively small. It's why geography matters.

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Surrounded by the bloc -

The states of the Western Balkans are encircled by EU nations, which necessarily restricts Russia's political ambitions there.

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Moldova and Armenia -

This dynamic does not apply as strongly to Moldova (pictured), less still for Georgia and Armenia.

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Geopolitical similarities -

When it comes to Armenia and Moldova, there are many similarities in their political and geographical makeup. Both are small and economically weak by European standards, and both currently have pro-European governments. But Armenia and Moldova also have substantial pro-Russian constituencies.

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Isolated from the EU -

The main difference between the two is geographical. Armenia is isolated from the EU by its location, wedged between Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran, and Turkey, and heavily reliant on Russia for security and energy.

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On the frontline -

Moldova, by contrast, shares a frontier with Romania—a friendly EU country—and Ukraine, a fellow candidate for joining the bloc.

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Georgia's arc of instability -

Georgia's border with Russia and decades-old conflicts over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which Moscow recognized as independent in 2008, heightens its vulnerability to any shifts in Russia's war with Ukraine.

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Pro-European population -

It's very likely this perceived weakness has driven the ruling Georgian Dream party away from a pro-Western course towards Russia, much to the consternation of thousands of pro-EU demonstrators who took to the streets of Tbilisi in May 2024 to rally against the government's "foreign influence" law.

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Bosnia and Herzegovina -

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, meanwhile, the geopolitical orientation division runs along ethnic lines. Russia recognized the independence of Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1992, and 89% of Serbs in Bosnia have a favorable view of Russia, according to an IRI survey from 2022. However, only 27% of Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims) and 39% of Bosnian Croats share any affinity with Moscow.

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A state of war -

Russia continues to wield power in the region through its ability to influence the populations of in-between states. But Putin's invasion of Ukraine has dealt a severe blow to the country's ability to project military and economic power in its neighborhood. What path these five countries take will be largely determined by developments beyond their control—in particular, the course of the war in Ukraine.

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What next? -

All eyes are therefore on the US president, Donald Trump, and his Russian counterpart. Trump says he and Putin could do something "significant'" toward ending the conflict. But if Russia is even partly victorious in its war of aggression in Ukraine, destabilization or military action against its in-between neighbors cannot be ruled out.

Sources: (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) (bne IntelliNews) (BBC) 

See also: Who is Vladimir Putin, really?

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