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Why are disasters more frequent? -

The increasing scale and intensity of climate-related hazards, coupled with a lack of preparedness, are contributing to a rise in disasters. Factors such as hunger, poverty, health risks, unsafe land use, and rapid urbanization exacerbate these risks. In the short term, the current El Niño cycle is further intensifying these threats.

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Is there a way out? -

The devastating consequences of the climate crisis, including widespread destruction, can lead to feelings of hopelessness and confusion. As communities face these challenges, it's natural to wonder if this is the new reality and whether we can prepare ourselves.

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Understanding disasters -

While reducing carbon emissions remains the most urgent priority for addressing climate change, the United Nations is also pursuing a more strategic approach with the development of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR).

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Understanding disasters -

By examining past disasters, countries and communities can learn from their experiences and develop strategies to reduce future risks.

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Goal -

According to the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, disasters are rarely unique. They are often preceded by smaller, similar events. By carefully examining these precursors, and understanding patterns, we can identify underlying factors and develop strategies for prevention.

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Forensics approach -

When we think about forensics, we often imagine crime scene investigation. CSI professionals gather, process, and analyze evidence like DNA, fingerprints, and fibers to assist law enforcement in solving crimes.

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Forensics approach -

Disaster forensics takes a similar, holistic approach. It examines not only the climatic factors but also other contributing elements that can exacerbate the impact of disasters. These factors may include unsafe housing, poverty, resource overuse, and unemployment.

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How does it work? -

Examining large-scale disasters in densely populated urban areas is a complex task. Researchers must analyze various factors contributing to these events, including the accumulation of risks over time.

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How does it work? -

The report outlines a three-step approach for conducting forensic investigations into disasters.

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Step 1: understanding the disaster DNA -

This step involves investigating the event's triggers, root causes, and risk drivers. The report recommends considering additional factors such as social and environmental conditions, land use patterns, income distribution, and existing governance structures for managing disasters.

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Step 1: understanding the disaster DNA -

Assessing community resilience and identifying factors that contributed to their ability to cope with the event is also crucial.

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Step 2: predicting future trends -

By identifying key disaster DNA areas, researchers can predict potential future trends. For example, if urbanization and informal settlements contributed to flood damage in a specific disaster, the report analyzes data on current and projected settlement trends.

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Step 3: sharing learnings -

To effectively reduce disaster risk, it's essential to facilitate multi-stakeholder discussions that review and refine the analysis of disaster DNA. The report suggests engaging various departments, including health authorities, meteorological institutes, land management or land use services, and civil protection authorities.

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Case studies -

The report presents 10 case studies of recent disasters, including the Mexico earthquake (2017), the US wildfires (2021), and the Lebanon floods (2024). Each case study was authored by experts in risk management, government officials, and climate specialists.

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US wildfires (2021) - what happened? -

In December 2021, Boulder County experienced the most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history. Fueled by strong winds and dry conditions, the fire spread rapidly, causing widespread damage. Despite early warnings, the fire destroyed over 1,000 homes and burned thousands of acres of land in just 24 hours.

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US wildfires (2021) - future trends -

By applying forensic analysis to the Boulder County fire, researchers identified areas of concern for future wildfire risk. As pointed out in the report, over 332,000 homes in Colorado are at risk of wildfire damage, with potential costs exceeding US$140 billion. This highlights the urgent need for proactive measures to mitigate wildfire risk and protect communities.

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US wildfires (2021) - learnings -

To reduce the risk of future wildfires, the report recommends strengthening regulations on land use and management, investing in firefighting services, and developing comprehensive wildfire safety codes.

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US wildfires (2021) - beyond material impact -

As the report emphasizes, the Boulder County fire highlighted the critical importance of mental health support in disaster recovery. The swift mobilization of therapists and free counseling demonstrates the need to prioritize mental well-being during such crises.

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Good news -

The case studies were not only applied to identify areas of improvement. Thanks to these studies, researchers were also able to propose the Disasters Avoided Model, highlighting successful strategies implemented in the past.

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Disaster prevention formula? -

This model looks at what measures have already yielded positive results and what more can be done to build resilience and avoid future disasters. The Disasters Avoided Model summarizes these measures in six points.

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1. The right mindset -

The report authors underline how disasters are not natural occurrences but rather the result of human choices and actions. Adopting this mindset shift is crucial to reframing disasters, according to the researchers.

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2. The right investment - Past events were prevented or minimized thanks to wise investments in prevention measures. The mindset shift mentioned also plays a part in effective resource allocation, according to the report.

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3. Good governance -

Strong political and economic commitment is essential for effective disaster management. Good governance ensures that resources are used efficiently and produce tangible results.

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4. Good data -

Reliable data is crucial for informed decision-making and to create a society that can coexist with nature’s forces. The report suggests satellite observations, AI, and on-the-ground monitoring.

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5. Meaningful inclusion -

Creating a resilient society requires collaboration, both within communities and globally. As highlighted in the report, many disasters have transboundary impacts, emphasizing the need for planning that considers the interconnectedness of people, planet, and prosperity.

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6. Meaningful targets -

While the report suggests that leaders and nations often have the knowledge to prevent or reduce disaster impacts, the key challenge lies in applying these lessons effectively. Setting realistic and achievable targets, aligned with global initiatives like the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), is crucial.

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Findings -

The report highlights that while all case study countries have disaster risk management legislation and early warning systems, the growing scale of hazard impacts is outpacing resilience efforts. Vulnerability, exacerbated by poverty and inequality, land degradation, and inefficient resource use, is a major contributor to disaster risk.

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Findings -

Unplanned urbanization and risk-blind land use planning, along with the deterioration of biodiversity in and around urban areas, are recurring themes. Additionally, the development and implementation of construction standards often play a role in determining the scale and intensity of any impacts.

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Preservation is paramount -

Nature-based solutions, such as protecting wetlands and coastal forests, are crucial assets in reducing vulnerability and exposure.

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Disaster-avoidance mindset -

As the researchers point out, much of the infrastructure and services needed to support our growing human population has yet to be built. Wise and proactive governments will see this as a prime opportunity to hardwire resilience and a disaster-avoidance mindset into the fabric of our future cities and communities.

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Using the disaster DNA for change -

Building resilience requires a multi-faceted approach that includes listening to communities and local experts, leveraging existing knowledge, and collaborating to upgrade strategies based on future trends. It also demands systems that measure and learn from disasters, quicker replication of successful strategies in the context of local geographies, and adjustments when challenges arise.

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Looking ahead -

The report was presented to world leaders at the UN Summit of the Future, held in September 2024 in New York. Effective global cooperation is increasingly essential for ensuring real change in nature preservation and effective risk management before disasters occur.

Sources: (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction) (PreventionWeb)

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