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Gaza -

According to Al Jazeera, as of May 24, 2024, the number of civilians killed in Gaza since the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023, stands at a figure of at least 35,800. Israel has suffered over 1,000 fatalities, while the number of dead in the Occupied West Bank is over 500. Thousands more on both sides have been injured.

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Gaza -

On May 20, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) requested the issuing of arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his defense minister Yoav Gallant, and three senior Hamas figures, including leader Yahya Sinwar, accusing them of war crimes and crimes against humanity since October 2023. A decision to execute the warrants is pending.

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Wider Middle East War -

The Israel-Hamas war is taking place against the threat of wider regional confrontation. On April 13, Iran launched an unprecedented aerial attack on Israel using drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen have pledged to continue targeting shipping in the Red Sea until Israeli withdraws its military from Gaza.

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Wider Middle East War -

Tensions remain high in the region, with Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, various militias in Iraq and Syria, plus Palestinian militant groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad variously involved in a string of attacks that have heightened fears that the war in Gaza could spill over into neighboring countries.

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Sudan -

A popular uprising inside the military in 2019 that saw the ousting of Sudan's former head of state, Omar al-Bashir, effectively triggered the current war in Sudan. The power struggle that ensued between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and a powerful paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) erupted into violent clashes on April 15, 2023.

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Sudan -

Since the fighting began, the humanitarian situation has deteriorated. The war has spilled into the ethnic killing, leaving thousands dead and displacing millions. Exacerbating the situation is severe weather events linked to climate change, including floods and droughts.

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Ukraine -

On February 24, 2024, the Russo-Ukrainian war entered its second year. In its latest report, published on February 22, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine said there have been 30,457 civilian casualties since February 24, 2022. This comprised 10,582 killed and 19,875 injured, although exact figures are difficult to quantify.

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Ukraine -

Although the new $61 billion aid package for Ukraine approved by Congress on April 23 will improve Ukraine's position on the battlefield, some military analysts have warned that Ukraine may lose the war against Russia in 2024. According to CNBC, the war "will likely not end within card" and President Zelensky's forces revert to playing a primarily defensive role.

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Ukraine -

While the new US$61 billion aid package for Ukraine approved by Congress on April 23 will improve Ukraine's battlefield position, some military analysts have warned that Ukraine could face defeat by Russia in 2024. The war is "unlikely to end anytime soon," according to CNBC, with President Zelenskyy's forces returning to a primarily defensive role.

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Myanmar -

In 2024, the military faces a national uprising that spans the breadth of the country. Dealing with increasing opposition from a coalition of armed ethnic groups and resistance forces, the regime has found itself operating on the back foot. The conflict, however, remains brutal. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), the warfare in Myanmar currently ranks as the most intense violent conflict among the 50 countries it monitors.

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Ethiopia -

The fighting between Tigrayan rebels against federal forces in Ethiopia's northernmost Tigray region ended in November 2022 after two years of bloodshed and atrocities that killed hundreds of thousands of people. While a fragile peace was largely sustained throughout 2023, serious human rights abuses against civilians in Tigray continued throughout the year, notably in Western, Northwestern, and Eastern Tigray Zones, according to Human Rights Watch.

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Ethiopia -

Deep-seated mistrust of one another, plus both sides mobilizing forces and amassing weaponry, is increasing the likelihood of accidental clashes in 2024 triggering another confrontation and all the violence and misery that would entail.

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Sahel -

Violence has visited Sahel for decades. A region in Africa encompassing Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger, the Sahel has served as a battleground for jihadist insurgency involving a myriad of organizations, including Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), and the Islamic State in the West African Province (ISWAP).

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Sahel -

Violent extremism is set to blight the region throughout 2024. The political, security, and economic situation in Sahel is further deteriorating as the conflict, which is essentially about the implementation of Jihadist governance in rural areas, is fueling a severe humanitarian and protection crisis.

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Haiti -

The assassination in July 2021 of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse is largely blamed for the wave of gang hyperviolence currently being witnessed in this impoverished Caribbean nation. And it's not set to end anytime soon.

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Haiti -

Moïse's death at the hands of foreign mercenaries created a power vacuum that the country's gang leaders have taken advantage of: criminals control much of the capital, Port-au-Prince. The fighting has left hundreds dead, and driven tens of thousands from their homes. Kenyan security forces are still set to intervene in attempt to quell the mayhem, but as of May 26 have yet to be deployed.

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Armenia-Azerbaijan -

The September 2023 offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, where Azerbaijan launched a military offensive into the breakaway ethnic Armenian enclave, reignited what the Foreign Policy Research Institute describes as a "frozen conflict." The neighboring countries of Armenia and Azerbaijan each claim the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh as their own. But last year's offensive prompted the exodus of almost all of those living there—around 120,000 people.

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Armenia-Azerbaijan -

The decades-long conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has seen two wars fought over the contested enclave. Azerbaijan's lightning attack on Nagorno-Karabakh in September ended three decades of de facto independence for the breakaway region, which the world already recognized as Azerbaijani. Hope is still alive that the two countries will eventually sign a peace deal. But this historic conflict shows no signs of thawing fast.

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US-China -

The meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in California in November 2023 went some way in resetting the clock between two of the world's most powerful nations. However, relations between the two superpowers remains fraught. The United States wants to contain China, but a pattern of strategic competition and confrontation has taken shape between China and the US that Washington has no choice but to address diplomatically. Nonetheless, America's patience in being severely tested.

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US-China -

A major flashpoint is Taiwan. On May 21, 2024, China launched two days of large-scale military drills surrounding Taiwan in what it called "punishment" for so-called "separatist acts" after the island swore in a new democratically-elected leader who called on Beijing to cease its intimidation tactics. And the launches into space by both China and Russia of what's believed to be anti-satellite weapons has raised fears that space is likely to be the next frontier of warfare.

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Middle East and North Africa -

Over and above these 10 specific conflicts being monitored in 2024 are several regions in the world that sadly remain synonymous with long-term warfare. According to data compiled by the Geneva Academy, in the Middle East and North Africa, 45 armed conflicts are currently taking place, the majority of them identified as non-international armed conflicts (NIACs). In the Middle East, Syria is the most affected country in the region. The Syrian civil war began in 2011 and has so far claimed nearly 618,000 lives, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

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Middle East and North Africa -

Turkey's armed conflict on its territory against the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) has been ongoing since 1978. In July 2015, a two-and-a-half year long ceasefire broke down, which took the conflict into a new and deadly phase. Since then, nearly 7,000 people have been killed, according to statistics complied by the International Crisis Group.

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Middle East and North Africa -

Iraq, no stranger to international and non-international conflict, has been engaged in armed conflict against the Islamic State group on its own territory since January 2014.

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Middle East and North Africa -

Meanwhile, the conflict between Turkey and Cyprus shows no sign of being resolved 50 years after Turkey invaded the Mediterranean island in 1974. Presently, Turkey occupies the northern part of the island. The photograph shows the Kyrenia mountain range painted with the flag of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and the Turkish flag.

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Middle East and North Africa -

Since the fall of the Qaddafi regime in 2011, Libya has been in a state of constant political turmoil and related armed violence. The internationally recognized Government of Libya, Libya National Army (LNA), various armed groups, and intervening foreign powers, all share responsibility in the destabilization of the country.

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Middle East and North Africa -

In 1957, Morocco claimed sovereignty over the Western Sahara. In 1973, the Polisario Front also claimed the region after the withdrawal of Spain from what was then known as Spanish Sahara. In 1975, Morocco invaded the territory. The conflict today is characterized as a largely unarmed civil campaign of the Polisario Front and their self-proclaimed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) state to gain fully recognized independence for Western Sahara.

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Africa -

Africa comes second in the number of armed conflicts per region, with more than 35 NIACs currently taking place across the continent. The Central Africa Republic (CAR) tops the list. A poor country whose political history has been plagued by military rule and coups, CAR's internal ethnic tensions and frequent armed insurgencies have resulted in thousands of deaths, most of them civilians.

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Asia -

According to the Geneva Academy, Asia is the theater of 21 current NIACs, in Afghanistan, India, Myanmar, Pakistan, and the Philippines. But it's the two long-running international armed conflicts between India and Pakistan and between India and China that often make headline news.

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Europe -

Europe is the scene of seven identified armed conflicts, notably the war between Russia and Ukraine. Russia's occupation of Crimea, the Moldavian territory of Transdniestria, and South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, are also considered as acts of aggression. And the aforementioned situation in Nagorno-Karabakh also constitutes an armed conflict.

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Latin America -

Six non-international armed conflicts are taking place in Latin America, split evenly between Mexico and Colombia. The Mexican government's stand against the country's ruthless drug cartels has, for the first time, prompted the Geneva Academy to classify armed violence involving criminal organizations as NIACs.

Sources: (International Crisis Group) (Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights) (Al Jazeera) (International Criminal Court) (Reuters) (Global Conflict Tracker) (United Nations) (ACLED) (The White House) (China-US Focus) (CNN) 

See also: The countries most affected by organized crime groups

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