© Getty Images

The importance of water -

As the natural resource most important to human survival, water can easily become a source of contention. Where water is scarce and humans are plenty, conflict is bound to arise.

© Shutterstock

The problem of water scarcity -

The problem of water scarcity seems to be on the rise. According to one BBC article, global water use grew at more than twice the rate of the population over the 20th century.

© Shutterstock

Numbers -

Today water scarcity affects 40% of the world population and the UN and the World Bank predict that drought could put 700 million people at the risk of displacement by 2030.

© Shutterstock

Rising numbers -

According to Charles Iceland, global director for water at the World Resources Institute, the latest research shows that water-related violence is also on the rise.

© Shutterstock

Verbatim -

To quote Iceland, "Population growth and economic development are driving increasing water demand worldwide. Meanwhile, climate change is decreasing water supply and/or making rainfall increasingly erratic in many places."

© Shutterstock

Key conflict -

An area particularly vulnerable to water-related conflict is the wider Tigris-Euphrates basin, which comprises Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and western Iran.

© Shutterstock

Controversy -

This area is losing groundwater at a frightening pace and the measures taken by some countries to secure their water supplies are controversial to say the least.

© Shutterstock

Turkey's dam plan -

In June 2019 Turkey began to fill a dam at the origins of the Tigris, in a bid to secure its own water supply. It was the latest development in a longer-term plan to build a network of dams.

© Shutterstock

OIEAU -

According to a report by the French International Office for Water, Turkey’s project is significantly affecting the flow of water into Syria, Iraq, and Iran.

© Shutterstock

Impact on Iraq -

Indeed, when Turkey began to fill the dam in June 2019, it halved the flow of river water into Iraq, which of course was in the midst of a 50°C (122°F) heatwave.

© Shutterstock

Physical consequences -

The quality of the water began to deteriorate, and by August hundreds of Iraqis were admitted to hospital with rashes, abdominal pain, vomiting, diarrhoea, and even cholera.

© Shutterstock

Water, Peace and Security -

The rising risk of water-related conflict has prompted the Dutch government-funded Water, Peace and Security (WPS) partnership to develop a predictive technology.

© Shutterstock

Predictive technology -

Their Global Early Warning tool uses AI to predict conflicts before they arise. Currently it warns of around 2,000 potential conflict areas with an accuracy rate of 86%.

© Shutterstock

It's complicated -

As well as enabling us to predict when conflict will arise, the Global Early Warning tool also shows that the relationship between water scarcity and conflict is not straightforward.

© Shutterstock

Combination of factors -

It seems that an area may be heavily affected by drought, but only the existence of a complex combination of factors will determine whether conflict will actually arise.

© Shutterstock

Syria and Kurdistan -

An example of this in action is the five-year drought that affected both the Kurdistan region of Iraq and Syria, but only caused large-scale displacement of Syrians in 2011.

© Shutterstock

Syrian displacement -

Large numbers of Syrian farmers were pushed into the cities when the government scrapped their subsidies for ground water extraction mid-drought.

© Shutterstock

Kurdish experience -

Kurdistan did not experience such a sudden cut-off of support and as a result the Kurdish community didn’t experience the same displacement, discontent, or conflict.

© Shutterstock

Prevention -

Given that technology can be harnessed to predict future conflicts, you might think that it could also be used to prevent those same conflicts from arising.

© Shutterstock

No quick fix -

However, there is no quick fix to water scarcity and the solution varies from one risk area to another. Certain countries would do well to first reduce loss and leaks of water.

© Shutterstock

Improve infrastructure -

Iraq, for example, loses up to two-thirds of its treated water just because of damaged infrastructure. Fixing the infrastructure would improve water supplies.

© Shutterstock

Reduce corruption -

The WPS partners, which include the Pacific Institute and the World Resources Institute, suggest that reducing corruption and cultural over-abstraction could also help.

© Shutterstock

Increase the price -

Iceland suggests that increasing the price of water to reflect how much it costs to provide might help since much of the world’s population wrongly assumes that water is always plentiful.

© Shutterstock

Desalination -

Desalination of seawater and waste water treatment are also hopeful options. Saudi Arabia, for example, currently uses seawater desalination to meet 50% of its water needs.

© Shutterstock

Waste water treatment -

The recycling of “grey” or waste water is low-cost and easy to implement, which makes it a great option for farmers affected by water scarcity.

© Shutterstock

High tensions -

Currently there are plenty of areas in the world where tensions are running high. These include the Aral Sea conflict, which comprises Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan.

© Shutterstock

High tensions continued -

There’s also the Jordan River conflict among the Levantine states and the Mekong River disputes involving China and its neighboring countries in southeast Asia.

© Shutterstock

Blue Nile conflict -

None of these has yet given rise to an actual conflict, but there are signs that one particular dispute between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia very well might.

© Shutterstock

Ethiopia dam-building -

When Ethiopia announced it would build a dam on the Blue Nile, a river on which all three countries depend for water, Egypt and Sudan held a joint war exercise in May 2021.

© Shutterstock

Water-sharing agreements -

Conflicts such as this may only be de-escalated by a water-sharing agreement. More than 200 of these have been signed since the Second World War ended.

Sources: (BBC)

See also: Floating gardens: Bangladesh's answer to climate change

© Shutterstock