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What is a pandemic? - According to Merriam Webster, a pandemic is “an outbreak of a disease that occurs over a wide geographical area and typically affects a significant proportion of the population.”

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Existing diseases - There are many different kinds of diseases that are transmitted and attack the body in different ways. A few you may be familiar with are Ebola, COVID-19, smallpox, malaria, and influenza.

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How do they come about? - Diseases often come from animal transfer. Many diseases already exist in the animal world and are transferred to humans through consumption. For example, it is thought that bats are the source of COVID-19.

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Genetic mutation -

When diseases are out in the open, survival of the fittest occurs. The disease will randomly genetically mutate to produce a new variant. If the mutation is more successful than the original, then it will spread through more people.

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How do we usually get rid of them? - The usual method has been to isolate people who are sick from others in order to prevent contagion. In conjunction, scientists try to create a vaccine to protect against new infections.

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Vaccines - You may think that vaccinations and isolation are the answer. However, vaccines take a long time to develop and distribute. Not to mention the problems with manufacturing and mutations. They cannot be the only response.

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Population - In the past hundred years, our population has more than quadrupled. Owing to more close contact and less space, it is easier for contagious diseases to spread among us.

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Exponential technology - We are also more in danger of diseases because of exponential technology. This is when technology improves at an extremely fast pace. For example, the first Apple computer was released in 1976. Some 45 years later, we have unbelievably more advanced tech devices.

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Synthetic biology - Exponential technology is relevant because the field of synthetic biology is expanding extremely fast. Synbio is the field of biology that deals with reengineering organisms for a specific purpose, be it good or bad.

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Synthetic biology - Exponential growth in synbio means that it might be possible in a few decades to recreate a disease in a high school lab. Right now only the top virologists can do this, but in the future children might be able to.

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Scientists good intentions - The scientists who work in synbio are often at the top of their field and have good intentions. They may want to reproduce a virus in a more dangerous form in order to study it to prepare for the future.

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High level of biosecurity - The labs in which diseases are experimented on usually have a very high level of biosecurity. However, no matter how high the security is or how well-intentioned the scientists are, there is always a way out.

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Accidental leaks - An important example of bio labs not being fully safe is the 1978 smallpox outbreak in the UK. Even though the disease had almost been eradicated, Janet Parker (1938-1978), a medical photographer, contracted it from a lab and passed away. The lab had the highest level of security possible.

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Intentional leaks - The security systems of labs target unintentional leak. However, it is very possible that there are intentional leaks as well.

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Who would do it? - Although the world is not brimming with evil people, there are the few who are severely mentally unwell. From this segment of society there are also those who want to take others with them when they pass on.

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Mass shootings - This small percentage of the population contains the people who carry out mass shootings and crash planes purposefully. They want to take many lives with them when they die. Some did so, but only as much as the technology they had allowed.

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Future - In the future, with the advancement of synbio, it will probably be possible for someone to make their own disease in a non-laboratory setting. It is very possible that instead of using a gun to inflict damage, this group of people may release a detrimental disease instead.

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Internet -

At the moment, it is possible to get the genetic codes of some deadly viruses on the internet. Even though the technology at the moment is lacking, it is only a matter of time before laboratories will no longer be necessary to turn code into matter.

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Optimism -

Despite these facts, it is not all doom and gloom. With the right implementation system, it will be possible for humans to protect against future pandemics.

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How we can protect - There needs to be a multi-pronged solution. Author Rob Reid suggests that we try and emulate the human body’s immunity when it encounters a pathogen.

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Medical science - First, the world has to invest a huge amount of money into research and development into disease protection technologies. At the moment there are alarmingly few mechanisms that regularly check for the presence of pathogens in bodies and the air.

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Medical service - If there is significant effort put in, in a few years it might be possible to check your breathing patterns with your phone. Scientists could also regularly test the air for diseases.

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Medical science - If there are more sensors alongside an international database that records all the different genetic codes of DNA, then we have a better shot at discovering a disease before it is too late.

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Mental health -

It is also important to ensure that as few people as possible feel unloved and uncared for when they have a mental illness. It is these people who will often carry out catastrophes. If they are cared for, then this is less likely to happen. This is not to say, however, that there aren't other potential motivations behind these attacks (i.e. financial, political, etc.).

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Synbio ethos - The understanding of the gravity of the situation needs to be ingrained into the ethics of synthetic biology. It can no longer just be an exciting new science without rules and regulations.

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Synbio ethos - Everybody needs to realize the potential of synthetic biology and treat it with respect. This means that those who want to work with it should be heavily vetted by a professional board.

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Synbio ethos - Laboratories that carry out research into synthetic biology should also be watched by an appropriate authority to make sure there are no intentional and unintentional slipups. This is not to say that the research into synbio should be stopped. The new wave in biology is coming whether we like it or not. The key is that we embrace it with the appropriate infrastructure to keep it safe.

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Imagination -

Perhaps this all seems a bit far-fetched. However, you can never prepare for the worst unless you imagine it first. The worst-case scenario is always a possibility and, in this case, it could be an inevitability if we don’t protect ourselves.

Sources: (Ars Technica) (Scientometrics) (Bloomberg)

See also: How do viruses jump from animals to humans?

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