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When will the coronavirus pandemic end? -

While it’s not possible to determine for sure how or when the pandemic will end, some experts have been looking at the possibilities.

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Reports -

Several reports predicted the development and the impact of the coronavirus around the world.

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Reports -

For instance, researchers at Imperial College London published information based on a model that predicted the likely impact of public health measures.

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Reports -

While early reports were used to calculate the impact COVID-19 could have in the world, and what measures could be implemented, the end of the pandemic could not be accurately predicted.

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New predictions -

According to researchers at the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD), the pandemic will end in December.

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Predictions -

However, the prediction is not applicable on a global scale, for every country. For instance, researchers predict that in Australia the pandemic will end in June, but it won't end until October in Italy.

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How predictions are calculated -

A mathematical model known as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) is used to make the calculation.

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How predictions are calculated -

The SIR formula is commonly used to predict the spread and recovery of diseases.

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History -

History tells us that the evolution of pandemics is not totally random. There is a cycle: it starts with an outbreak, it peaks, and then subsides.

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Stages of pandemic -

What happens is these three stages will vary, depending on a number of factors, including government measures and individual actions.

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Data -

Researchers have used COVID-19 data compiled by a research organization called Our World in Data.

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Data -

The dataset is updated daily and contains information on confirmed cases and deaths, supplied by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).

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Data analysis -

The data is then put into a graph, and the bell curve is analyzed.

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Data analysis -

This is how acceleration, turning point, and estimated end of the pandemic are estimated.

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Predictions -

Researchers did warn, however, that the complexity and dynamic nature of COVID-19 makes it more difficult to rely on the data and the model.

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Caveats -

Accuracy depends on the quality of data and, according to researchers, reliability of data is a problem.

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Caveats -

This is because data is reported differently by different countries.

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Caveats -

The graph also does not account for the effects of government measures (e.g. the effects of lockdowns, social distancing, etc.).

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But not so fast... -

A report by the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) in the US says otherwise.

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It might take a lot longer -

The CIDRAP report estimates that the pandemic might last at least another 18 months to two years.

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Infection rate -

This is when around 60% to 70% of the population has been infected.

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Herd immunity -

Being a new virus, we have not yet built immunity to it. "The length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity gradually develops in the human population," researchers pointed out.

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Possible scenarios -

Mike Osterholm, from the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, and Harvard School of Public Health epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch predict the possible following scenarios.

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Scenario 1 -

The first wave of the pandemic is followed by a number of smaller waves through the summer, and then gradually diminishing until 2021.

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Scenario 2 -

The first wave of the pandemic is followed by a larger wave in the fall or winter and subsequent smaller waves in 2021.

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Scenario 3 -

A steady slow ongoing transmission rate. According to Lipsitch and Osterholm, this scenario “likely would not require the reinstitution of mitigation measures, although cases and deaths will continue to occur."

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The end -

These are indeed predictions, and it is likely that more reports will follow. As it stands, no one is able to determine a definite date for the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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See also - How to keep calm during the coronavirus pandemic

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