This system has helped people for decades
During Donald Trump's reelection campaign, he promised that the first item on his presidential agenda would be deporting illegal immigrants by the millions. Trump's plan includes doing away with due process, reintroducing COVID-19 border measures to deny asylum requests, canceling visas of foreign students who participated in pro-Palestinian protests, expanding ideological screening of visa applicants, canceling temporary protection statuses, and ending birthright citizenship, among other measures. But what impact will these measures have on the US economy? To find out more, click through the gallery.
In September 2024, Donald Trump told a crowd of supporters he intends on implementing “the Eisenhower model” in relation to immigration law. The Eisenhower model refers to a 1954 campaign by then-President Dwight D. Eisenhower to conduct a mass removal of Mexican immigrants.
Up to 1.3 million people, among them American citizens, may have been deported to Mexico under the program dubbed Operation Wetback, which uses a slur that refers to illegal immigrants who cross into the United States via the Rio Grande, a body of water that runs along parts of the US-Mexico border.
Although the scheme was temporary, it caused irreparable harm. Millions of Mexicans had come to the United States through joint immigration programs, to aid in labor shortages. Mexico was experiencing labor shortages of their own, and so it requested the assistance of the US government to implement this plan.
Tactical, military strategies were used to round up mass amounts of immigrants, who were then sent via land, air, and sea to Mexico, abandoned by the American government.
Deplorable holding conditions and violence from officials led to the death of some immigrants. Those who survived were dropped in random Mexican cities, forced to reconstruct their lives in foreign contexts.
This wasn’t the first time that Mexicans had faced this kind of deportation violence. The American government also deported over one million Mexicans, 60% of which were American citizens, during the implementation of the 1930's New Deal programs.
The US government implemented their severe deportation plan in order to keep Mexicans from accessing welfare programs. Raids on workplaces like factories and farms were conducted, marking a dark period for Latinos in American history.
Today, record numbers of people from Central and South America flee to the United States to escape violence and economic despair in their countries, with some referring to the influx of undocumented migrants as a crisis.
During Trump’s first presidential term, his attempt to deport the over 700,000 beneficiaries of programs like Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), which protects undocumented people who were brought to the United States as children, was halted by the United States Supreme Court.
Since Trump's first term, both the federal appellate courts and the Supreme Court have experienced changes that fair in favor of more conservative policies.
In conjunction with Trump’s selection of advisers, cabinet officials, and lawyers, which will be geared toward finding entryways to uproot policies in favor of immigration loopholes, his new administration will likely find the methods to implement his plans of action.
Trump has promised to end programs like DACA and to develop a more militarized border akin to Israel, and is contemplating the use of arbitrary violence against those attempting to cross the US-Mexico border illegally.
Trump also plans on ending the country’s refugee program, as well as barring entries from several countries, primarily from Muslim-majority nations, a continuation and expansion of policies from his first term.
Taking inspiration from far-right European leaders, Trump also seeks to enact third-country agreements in Central and South America, Africa, and Asia. Under this scheme, asylum processes would be outsourced.
Critics of similar programs elsewhere argue that this strategy is likely in violation of international law, utilizing these methods in efforts to deter claims arbitrarily deemed as illegitimate.
Trump is also planning to end birthright citizenship for those born in the United States to undocumented parents, a measure that would need to be argued in the Supreme Court to amend a constitutional clause.
Reiterating Trump’s support for Israeli policy, he has also promised to cancel visas of foreign students who have participated in pro-Palestine protests. This measure would be implemented in conjunction with efforts to increase ideological screenings during visa application processes.
Trump will also seek to implement a blanket end to temporary protection status and humanitarian visas, impacting the lives of nearly one million people who may face deportation accordingly.
Some economists argue that mass deportations will have a shrill effect on the United States’ economy. The American Enterprise Institute estimates the nation’s GDP growth will be cut by 0.5%, which amounts to an over 30% drop.
This is because deported workers would not only leave a significant labor shortage that would likely impact rising costs in particular industries, but also a large chunk of the population, approximately 11 million people, would no longer be contributing toward the economy.
The economic impact of such a loss could be anywhere between 4.2-6.8% to the annual GDP, equivalent to US$1.1-1.7 trillion. Undocumented people pay taxes and contribute toward Social Security, and impacts to major sectors, such as agriculture, would face crumbling conditions.
Former Trump adviser Stephen Miller argues that the disruption to the labor market would actually be beneficial, stating that the jobs left behind would become positions that pay higher wages with better benefits.
Economists across the political spectrum have debated the argument on increased wages for low-skilled jobs, but little data exists to demonstrate that this effect would take place.
According to the American Immigration Council, executing this plan as a one-time operation, of which several are proposed along Trump’s presidency, would total approximately US$350 billion between efforts required to conduct arrests, detain immigrants, begin the legal processing, and implement removals.
The mobilization of the National Guard, armed forces, and local police officers, among other entities, to administer Trump’s plan will also likely prove costly.
Where would the millions of detained be held? Trump also plans to build facilities, also referred to as camps, along the US-Mexico border to hold detainees there as they await processing and deportation. In addition to legal questions, this, too, would be a costly endeavor.
Provided that the Trump administration would apply these tactics ongoingly throughout his presidency, the American Immigration Council has issued an initial calculation of close to US$1 trillion to implement this program along a 10-year scheme.
Trump will likely face a number of legal obstacles to implement his proposed policies, but the current conditions, in terms of court assimilation, may be favorable to push through even the most previously unfathomable measures.
Sources: (France 24) (History) (The New York Times) (American Immigration Council)
The financial fallout of Trump’s immigration crackdown
What impact will mass deportations have on the economy?
LIFESTYLE Deportation
During Donald Trump's reelection campaign, he promised that the first item on his presidential agenda would be deporting illegal immigrants by the millions. Trump's plan includes doing away with due process, reintroducing COVID-19 border measures to deny asylum requests, canceling visas of foreign students who participated in pro-Palestinian protests, expanding ideological screening of visa applicants, canceling temporary protection statuses, and ending birthright citizenship, among other measures. But what impact will these measures have on the US economy? To find out more, click through the gallery.