You snooze you lose?
Several reports predicted the development and the impact of the coronavirus around the world.
The graph also does not account for the effects of government measures (e.g. the effects of lockdowns, social distancing, etc.).
Researchers have used COVID-19 data compiled by a research organization called Our World in Data.
What happens is these three stages will vary, depending on a number of factors, including government measures and individual actions.
History tells us that the evolution of pandemics is not totally random. There is a cycle: it starts with an outbreak, it peaks, and then subsides.
Accuracy depends on the quality of data and, according to researchers, reliability of data is a problem.
"When will it end?" This is the million-dollar question we've all been asking ourselves, ever since the coronavirus became a worldwide pandemic. And what a tough question it is to answer. Experts are doing their best to predict the end of the pandemic, but with so many variables, on such a global scale, this is no easy task. The latest reports do contain conflicting predictions, so which ones should we believe?
Click through the following gallery and find out the latest predictions for the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to experts.
A mathematical model known as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) is used to make the calculation.
The CIDRAP report estimates that the pandemic might last at least another 18 months to two years.
The SIR formula is commonly used to predict the spread and recovery of diseases.
The first wave of the pandemic is followed by a number of smaller waves through the summer, and then gradually diminishing until 2021.
Being a new virus, we have not yet built immunity to it. "The length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity gradually develops in the human population," researchers pointed out.
Researchers did warn, however, that the complexity and dynamic nature of COVID-19 makes it more difficult to rely on the data and the model.
The first wave of the pandemic is followed by a larger wave in the fall or winter and subsequent smaller waves in 2021.
While early reports were used to calculate the impact COVID-19 could have in the world, and what measures could be implemented, the end of the pandemic could not be accurately predicted.
However, the prediction is not applicable on a global scale, for every country. For instance, researchers predict that in Australia the pandemic will end in June, but it won't end until October in Italy.
This is because data is reported differently by different countries.
A steady slow ongoing transmission rate. According to Lipsitch and Osterholm, this scenario “likely would not require the reinstitution of mitigation measures, although cases and deaths will continue to occur."
Mike Osterholm, from the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, and Harvard School of Public Health epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch predict the possible following scenarios.
These are indeed predictions, and it is likely that more reports will follow. As it stands, no one is able to determine a definite date for the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to researchers at the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD), the pandemic will end in December.
This is when around 60% to 70% of the population has been infected.
For instance, researchers at Imperial College London published information based on a model that predicted the likely impact of public health measures.
The dataset is updated daily and contains information on confirmed cases and deaths, supplied by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).
This is how acceleration, turning point, and estimated end of the pandemic are estimated.
The data is then put into a graph, and the bell curve is analyzed.
A report by the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) in the US says otherwise.
While it’s not possible to determine for sure how or when the pandemic will end, some experts have been looking at the possibilities.
When will the coronavirus pandemic end?
Here's what we know, so far
HEALTH Covid-19
"When will it end?" This is the million-dollar question we've all been asking ourselves, ever since the coronavirus became a worldwide pandemic. And what a tough question it is to answer. Experts are doing their best to predict the end of the pandemic, but with so many variables, on such a global scale, this is no easy task. The latest reports do contain conflicting predictions, so which ones should we believe?
Click through the following gallery and find out the latest predictions for the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to experts.